I know quite a few people in Houston who have been riding on UA's very generous status extensions and who will never make it back to Plat or 1K via company dime. I really don't know how many will be culled/pushed down come February 1 and I can't even predict if there will be a notieable change in waitlists. The convention business in Las Vegas is still lagging, so there is definitely some business travel that's been slow to come back.

If UA raises the threshholds, I expect promotions, considering the possible recession and underwhelming business travel numbers. Not even sure why UA should even bother raising the hurdles right now.