FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - United forced to suspend JFK service due to expiration/lack of slots, end of Oct 2022
Old Oct 4, 2022 | 8:32 am
  #200  
JimInOhio
10 Countries Visited
Community Builder
All eyes on you!
10 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Programs: UA MM, Marriott LT Plat
Posts: 5,166
Originally Posted by EWR764
At all times relevant to United's change in approach re: JFK, it had, and continues to have, access to capital to fund major strategic expenditures. A JFK slot portfolio would absolutely fit into that category. If COVID showed us anything, it's that the markets are willing to support virtually any reasonable proposal by the airline industry to lever-up. And no, United's JFK pullout this time around is not at all about cost savings. I'd wager United probably lost money on nearly every JFK departure it flew since resuming service (if not that, then in the aggregate) and it was publicly willing to continue to absorb losses as it attempted to build a larger presence. To date there hasn't been any ability for United to acquire slots in a meaningful way, outside of random late-night slot pairs that are useless for transcontinental business traffic (see Norse, Air New Zealand), and when the slot waivers expire at the end of the month, United is simply out of luck.

I can assure you that major slotholders like American, Delta and JetBlue have no interest at all in "selling" a material number of slots to United so that it may relaunch services that would be directly competitive with some of the aforementioned carriers' most successful JFK markets. For the same reason I mention above, not a single one has needed to resort to asset sales, especially those with positive future cash flows (like JFK slots), to fund long-term viability. This isn't a situation like Pan Am or TWA faced in the 80s and 90s, where firesales of crown jewel assets were the only path to cling to life.

So, I understand your point in the theoretical (everything has its price) but in a real-world, practical sense, United is in search of a unicorn. Are you suggesting that United should be making what amounts to a hostile takeover of AA, DL, B6, etc. for the JFK slots? Not realistic. There's no market for what United is seeking. Petitioning in the media for some allocation of slots during an DOJ proceeding with two incumbent JFK carriers is a bit desperate, but they don't have many other options.
It's hard to see what UA was envisioing when they went down this "return to JFK" path. Frankly, I don't think they ever had a sound strategy to make it work because you can't have such limited service to just two destinations and have that be a sustainable success (as a major airline). So what were they planning on?

1) Acquiring slots from other airlines? You've stated none were ever for sale.
2) Slot re-allocation? Why would UA ever think that was going to happen with a positive result? The FAA hadn't conducted this for years and it's never a good strategy to count on something happening that hasn't happened in seemingly forever. And even if it did, what would UA have received? We all know LCC's are granted preference in accessing airports deemed closed to them. This would mean Spirit, Frontier, maybe Southwest and/or Allegiant would have been the real beneficiaries. If there was anything left over, it wouldn't be enough for UA to have a meaningful and profitable operation. Heck, even Alaska might have wanted more.

So this just strikes me as a "let's throw something at the wall and see if it sticks" kind of move UA made. Predictably, it didn't.
JimInOhio is online now