Originally Posted by jsloan

Welcome to FlyerTalk!

There is no strategy. Airlines do everything in their power to make it impossible to predict prices. If you think it's a good value at $5300, buy it. If the price goes down, you can cancel, rebook, and keep the remaining amount as a credit. If not, you're locked in.

Personally, I wouldn't consider buying a ticket at that price 8 months ahead of time, because traditionally the best fares tend to be offered somewhere between 3 months and 3 weeks ahead of departure, and that hardly sounds like a bargain. However, what you're seeing is the lowest price currently published for that route -- a Z fare with a base of $4250 and a fuel surcharge of $1000. It has a 60 day minimum purchase requirement and requires a 7 day minimum stay. And, like I said, the airlines try really hard to make this unpredictable, so just because some period of time has traditionally been the best doesn't mean that it will continue to be the best.

A little over a month ago, there was a P fare offered with a base of $2400 as well as a $3300 Z fare. That fare expired on August 16th. Will they bring it back? Only time will tell.