I think people are missing the boat on this. The phrase "negotiating in the media" comes to mind.
First, UA only was able to re-enter JFK because of slot exemptions occasioned by the pandemic; they never were able to buy or were awarded additional permanent slots. They simply used slots that nominally belong to another carrier that was able to suspend flying as a consequence of the waivers. The current slot exemption is through 10/29/22, the IATA northern summer season. If the FAA does not extend slot waivers another season (all indications are they will not) then United will lose the ability to use those slots unless it contracts with the slotholder.
Second, UA clearly has not been able to source its own slots since resuming JFK service. There has been no incentive for any airline to unload slot holdings at JFK to date, since the exemption has been in place. None of the incumbent carriers with meaningful slot portfolios have been in such dire straits that they needed to sell JFK slots to raise cash. Other carriers that have temporarily suspended service due to the exemption are likely to restart service to preserve their slots. As an aside, I would expect a number of slots to shake loose post-10/29 once the exemption ends and airlines are once again held to usage thresholds to retain slots (e.g., Aeroflot, Norwegian, Interjet, some Chinese carriers), which United should have a chance to secure. It's also unclear which dormant slots United has been using for its 4 daily arrival/departure pairs.
Third, many industry observers expect the DOJ to reach a pre-trial settlement with AA/B6, and it is possible that a settlement will involve a divestiture of assets, including BOS gates, JFK slots/gates and LGA slots/gates. This would allow AA/B6 to preserve their NEA, which it seems extraordinarily committed to. My impression is that AA is willing to give up a great deal to ensure the NEA survives DOJ scrutiny, since without it, their JFK position is in serious jeopardy of enormous losses going forward, some of which would be unavoidable in light of other obligations, including its lease with the PANYNJ and JV with BA. With a September 27 trial date approaching, those discussions are probably underway. United has an interest in making a public argument that the AA/B6 NEA is anticompetitive, with JFK-LAX as an example, and positioning itself as a carrier that would benefit from additional slots at JFK to more effectively compete with AA/B6. The irony here is delicious, of course, but, as the saying goes, "don't hate the player, hate the game."
Fourth, I don't read this at all to be an indication that United is struggling at JFK. Well, they probably are, at least as compared to EWR, but that's beside the point. Perhaps it's better to say that United isn't threatening to pull out of JFK
because it is struggling. The argument in favor of keeping JFK service from LAX/SFO in 2015 was chiefly that high value (including longtime managed United corporate contract) traffic originating at West Coast points of sale inbound to New York exhibited a clear preference for JFK over EWR. Once UA obtained the use of JFK slots and restarted LAX/SFO service a year into the pandemic, with 767s, it was obvious that P&L on the individual JFK segments didn't matter. United believes it needs to be in the market. It isn't going to pull out of JFK unless it has absolutely no other choice... meaning, no slots. To obtain them, and "restore competitive balance"
, it is either asking the FAA to create more slots, or take them from the "anti-competitive" AA/B6 agreement.
No doubt a lot of horse trading is going on behind the scenes here. It will be interesting to watch over the next few weeks.
One more note: it is true that UA traded its JFK slots to Delta in return for additional EWR slots in 2015. The next year, the FAA brought EWR down to a Level 2 airport, so those EWR slots United "traded for" from Delta went away. But, United still technically holds 12 slot pairs, leased to Delta. At some point that lease will be up for renewal, an option United may decline if it is able to, but for now those slots are basically untouchable for United operations.