Originally Posted by littlevoices

My perspective: It is very unlikely that you will find any redemption tickets at Christmas for any airline around Asia, even if quarantine is removed and Cathay resumes 3-4 flights a day to Sydney, compared to the 3-4 times a week, so the current last minute pattern you are seeing is unlikely to persist, this is as Australia will be a very popular destination this winter!

Cathay's flexible ticket changes means you could book economy tickets and if there is some miracle and a ticket opens up, you could just change the economy tickets (or destination) for later in the year/2023. In theory your "two one way tickets" plan is better than a return, as once you've taken the first leg it will be more difficult to change (And you can't cancel the outbound flight only, if you miss it then it will cancel), the Cathay unlimited changes promise is only good till 31 December 2022 as well (to change, you can change it till December 2023). However got to be honest, it's not a very good chance, and for 4 seats as well on a single flight, very unlikely.

Hence, book the return economy tickets and plan on taking them. If you want to save money you need to start outside of Hong Kong (e.g. Bangkok) or go via another popular destination, such as Singapore or Malaysia. This is the only way to save money, rather than getting redemption tickets, which won't likely exist. A flight from Bangkok to Australia in business, with a stopover/transit in Hong Kong is about 30k HKD, which you may consider a reasonable price. In your case, given a choice between no flight or a flight, I would book the economy tickets, and hope they're in an upgradeable class, or check out if there is a premium economy option that you could then upgrade, if really lucky, but it isn't likely so I'd try and get on the day flights so you don't have to sleep without a "bed".