Originally Posted by snorkmaster
I think TAM would be benefit more from OW or Star. If Sky snagged TAM, it would be a nice catch -- it's certainly a much better airline than most of the carriers in the alliance.
Take a look at this article:
http://news.airwise.com/stories/2004/12/1102021123.html
"LAN Considering South American Expansion
Chile's largest airline LAN is looking at opportunities to invest in Brazil and Argentina, the company's biggest shareholder said on Thursday......"
".....Asked whether LAN was interested in buying a stake in Brazil's Varig, which is struggling under a massive debt load and which the Brazilian government is looking to rescue, Pinera said: "Obviously I'm not going to tell you things that we are in the middle of analyzing and researching. Now, Argentina and Brazil are two big priorities for us."....."
If Varig survives and stays a member of *A, and if LAN enters Brazil with "LAN Brazil", assumably, at some point in time, LAN Brazil would have some type of relation with OW; I would think TAM would be better off in ST. At that time, even if TAM were to consider joining *A or OW, it would be doubtful whether LAN would want TAM in OW or Varig would want TAM in *A.
If LAN bought into Varig, Varig could be OW bound leaving TAM the choice of *A or ST. If Varig was not headed to OW, even with a LAN ownership, Varig could stay a member of *A. Based solely on purchasing an interest in Varig, I doubt LAN would be *A bound; LAN would stay in OW.
Of course, Varig could liquate or be bought by TAM. Then TAM would have a choice of *A, ST, or, if LAN stays out of Brazil, OW. However, given recent events in the Brazilian aviation industry Varig will most likely survive, and this scenario probably will not happen.
Notwithstanding all of the above, the possibility exists that TAM will not join any alliance, or TAM could join some new alliance.
There are so many ifs, ands, and buts. Only time will tell us the end result of all this.