TATL upgrades ex-SFO tend to be quite difficult. I would agree with the 10% estimate, as a proxy for "it's really not likely to clear."
Originally Posted by
WineCountryUA
Seatmaps are not a reliable indication of availability. Have been noticing for TATL out of SFO, where 10-15 seats are "available" but inventory is under J9. One was J3.
Probably an oversold PE cabin.