FWIW my P2 applied for an AMEX Gold card 100k offer for $4k spend. She did not receive a pop up but I know she had the PRG sometime 5-8 years ago. My experience is that bonus points post within a day or two of hitting the spend. It's been a week now with no bonus. I guess I'll just wait it out. I know the pop-up isn't foolproof; it would be unfortunate to have paid $250 for no SUB.