A group of Alaska-based FTers just spent 3 nights at Brooks. (Truly one of the most epic experiences of my life--highly, highly recommended.)

We booked the water taxi and flew into AKN the day prior (to allow time to explore--not much worth going out of your way for there, but driving to the end of the road in Naknek, eating at D&D Pizza, and walking the beach was pleasant enough--and also for IRROPS recovery in case of flight delays, which thankfully didn't materialize). Late on the evening of our arrival into AKN, we got an email from the water taxi that the NPS had advised them to cancel due to winds causing rough waters on Naknek Lake.

Thankfully, since we were already in King Salmon and were able to act quickly, we were able to book a last-minute trip on Katmai Air and managed to get there just about the same time the water taxi would have arrived. It probably helped that our group was large enough that we basically effectively chartered one of their Otters.

We ended up booking the air taxi as a round-trip, but we were delayed a few hours departing Brooks after our three days due to low clouds/fog. The water taxi was operating that morning without issue.

We talked with numerous workers at Brooks (NPS rangers, shuttle drivers, etc., aware of the fact that the lodge/shuttle staff were likely biased due to working for the same parent company as the air taxi) and the overall consensus seemed to be that the water taxi was more reliable than the air taxi. The only thing that keeps the water taxi from sailing is relatively rare easterly winds (which whip up the waves on Naknek Lake), and in those instances, the air taxi is able to still fly by landing on Brooks Lake (above the falls), which is largely sheltered from easterly winds by thick forest. The air taxi tends to encounter issues with morning fog and low clouds, though in most cases, that does tend to burn off throughout the day, so multi-day strandings are not too common. One point in favor of the air taxi is that they have a decent fleet of aircraft and pilots and can simply add extra segments to get through a backlog of passengers and baggage once the weather clears, whereas the water taxi only has a single boat that doesn't have a lot of slack between its scheduled sailings, so it's harder for them to recover from delays. (We did hear some murmerings that the water taxi sometimes tends to cancel services when loads are light and blames the NPS or weather just to avoid looking bad, but I don't know how much truth there is to those rumors.

It's also worth noting that the water taxi staff--especially Kat, who seems to be the most active person on their social media--tends to come off a little on the acerbic side (or at least brutally honest--emphasis on the brutal). Granted, it's frustrating dealing with a clueless public who is completely oblivious to the frequent travails of traveling in rural Alaska, but when you decide to open a business in the hospitality industry, you kind of just have to accept that as part and parcel of the whole gig...and I'm not sure Kat's and Rob's personalities are the best suited for this business. If you can get past that, though, it becomes a lot easier to read Kat's responses to guest complaints on TripAdvisor with an understanding eye. (That said, one of the water taxi's downfalls is poor communication; in multiple instances, the staff were not clear in their communications about the circumstances or the reasons for them, and much stress would have been alleviated had the emails been written even a little more carefully and clearly.)

Other than reliability, I don't think there's really much to comment on regarding the boat vs. plane. We didn't do the boat ourselves, but just from seeing the terrain from the air, I wouldn't guess it's a particularly scenic ride unless the weather were crystal clear (which we were fortunate enough to encounter for the first half of our trip!) and views of the Aleutian Range to the east were out. Similarly, the plane ride itself is only modestly scenic--you're not flying through steep mountain passes or anything, though a bird's-eye view of any kind of land is nice. When we first booked early this year, the difference in price between the water taxi and the air taxi was quite small (I think only a $25 difference?) but by the time we had to pivot and change to the air taxi on the day of departure, the delta had increased to $75 (rates are apparently negotiated with and set by the NPS).

If I were to do it again, I'd probably just go for the air taxi as it seems they have better IRROPS recovery ability (they've been doing this a long time, too), but I certainly wouldn't rule out the water taxi entirely. I don't think either one could be considered as a "wrong" choice.