Originally Posted by JAPGUY

Thanks to everybody for the info! To make the problem even more complex, it is in fact one of my bosses who's paying for this trip ^ and he's not likely to care whether I buy V or H (though he will complain if I buy B or higher). So my real choices would be:

1. Buy H fares now and use my miles to upgrade, saving SWUs for private trips (perhaps in V fares) in the future, or

2. Buy V fares now and use my SWUs on January 1st, saving my miles and perhaps risking the upgrade.

Then my question is: in the second option, how likely am I to lose? Is January 1st early enough for a 1K to get coach-to-business upgrade for transpacific flights in mid-February? What's your forecast from experience in the past?