To close the loop in case anyone has this issue in the future, the points ended up transferring successfully (finally). All in all, took about 48 hours, and a total of 3 hours on the phone with Capital One trying to clear the fraud alert. In the grand scheme of things, I'm glad it all worked out. However, in this day and age of dynamic award pricing, I hope people in the future don't run into this issue and get stuck with transferring points...only to find that they are now short because of an increase in redemption prices/points the next day.