I'm a recent AA Gold so I don't have past experience to go by, and I'm based in the northeast, but I feel like my experience has been similar. So far I've managed an upgrade on 3 out of 4 flights this year.
I'm mostly a solo leisure traveler, so I don't mind flying at weird hours to get the cheapest prices and don't often to go to business- or tourist-heavy destinations, at least not at those prime hours. And while they've all been relatively short legs (1.5-3 hours each), I figure that's pretty good considering most were paid Basic Economy.