I'm EXP and still slightly under you in LPs for the year, but my heavier flying almost always comes at the end of the year, it's a normal pattern for me. I'll easily hit my 200k LPs but most of that will be in Q4. Having said that, I haven't been to AUS since 2008 so can't speak much for the upgrade rate there.

Just as a data point, I've only ever missed 1 domestic upgrade in the US since I've been EXP. (I don't fly very much domestic, so don't be jealous, it's a fairly small sample size... )