I agree that only AC knows what the numbers are.

There is a double whammy right now with more demand for flying and still not back to full schedules. It seems to have affected domestic routes particularly, including transborder. I could still have upgraded in one case but I just opted for a J ticket with free cancellation to maximize my flexibility and certainty.

Given my decades of flying AC and working Aeroplan/Altitude to full advantage*, I am not unhappy, in order to make sure I stay in the front cabin, to up my contributions to AC given what they have given me.
(*when we got 8 most fare upgrades confirmable at time of booking valid on international routes on qualifying for SE and basically 2 every 10000 SQM; AND you got 25% class of service bonus on the upgrade!).

AC does misjudge at times* and this may be one of them.
(*in 1999 at the beginning of the year you could buy a book of 8 most fare international upgrades for 28000 Aeroplan miles, an offer they quickly withdrew)

Early 2023 will tell us all the tale when hopefully most routes are operating more normally. By then, if they haven't upped their lounge game, lounge access will likely still be an issue as it was starting to be an issue pre-pandemic.