5 months out? I'd do standard processing 3 months before the travel date. I've always taken my regular renewals to the Post Office just to ensure postage is right and get a tracking number.

We did our passports in December - got them in January, about 5-6 weeks in total. Regular processing. Now most of the data points seem to be right around 1 month.

I honestly don't get the point of paying the expedited fee. It seems like you're either doing it regular....or you need it urgently enough you need to get to an in-person agency. I suspect expedited might get you a passport back in 3 weeks....maybe....but if you're really 3 weeks from travel, you aren't going to bank on it.