Looking for some guidance on an upcoming itinerary LAX-CLT-TLH (5/20, if it matters). I'm usually a UA flyer, but UA does not even fly to TLH, so would appreciate insight from those more familiar with CLT than myself!

Currently, we depart LA at 6:05 a.m. and have a 38 minute connection (so above MCT, but barely), leaving CLT at 2:30 p.m. When I booked months ago, I was OK with the risk as there were two more CLT-TLH flights that day, and we are flying up front so should be quick to deplane. The schedule has since been reduced so there is only one more CLT-TLH flight that day, departing at 10:27 p.m. Today, EF shows C7/Y7 for the later flight, and we will have Centurion lounge access (space permitting) if we get stuck with a long layover; there also appear to be routings available via MIA/DFW that could get us in that same night.

I have four primary questions for CLT flyers:

First, am I right that we are about 50/50 for making the connection if things are all on time?
Second, would you expect our bags to make this connection (my bags have routinely made tighter connections on UA at IAH, but never flown through CLT)?
Third, are GAs in CLT likely to offload us from the second flight if there is even a slight delay on our inbound? Neither of us have any status on AA.
Fourth, if we do misconnect/get offloaded, is the AA app likely to show us any available routing? I am trying to assess how much access we'll have to rebooking without standing in line or waiting on hold for hours.

Thanks in advance for any insight you can share!