Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave

The word I think you may have missed is "upcoming". We are now on 13 April, so 9 April is in the past. For that event on 9 April you would not need any eligible flights, you were just renewed. Hence the next upcoming event for you is 9 April 2023 - which is after June 2022. So for that event, as things stand, you would need both eligible flights and tier points. As you rightly point out the tier point bit is lower if you get them all in by year end. More details in the wiki and thread referenced.