I have a room reserved at the Ritz Carlton Bachelor Gulch in February 2023 for five night for 400K points. I don't have the points in my account right now though--I need to accumulate them, which I can do (just signed up for Marriott Boundless card). However, until I lock in the room at the 100K per night rate, it can fluctuate.

I could transfer a combination of AmEx Membership Rewards points and Chase Ultimate Rewards points into my Marriott Bonvoy account right now, and have ALMOST enough Marriott points to lock in at this level--I'd have 395K. I guess I would have to buy the other 5K.

Normally I would never do this because I would be converting at 1:1, and the MR and UR points are worth way more than Marriott points--about 2 cents each for MR and UR, versus, I believe, about 0.8 cents for Marriott points.

Is it worth doing in this case, however, to lock in the 400K per night rate before March 29? Basically, my question is how much can we expect the points award rate to increase for this room over the next several months? Could it as much as double (which I think is what would be necessary to make it worthwhile to transfer the MR and UR points)?

Thanks very much for any advice.