Two points I want to make:
- Greater Bay Airlines is already approved. This will be detrimental to Cathay's near-monopolistic hold on HKG; I can only assume that HK Govt officials, pro-Beijing citizens, or just politically indifferent and price sensitive customers will switch their business to GBA. However, this also strengthens Cathay's survival chances - there is now no urgent need for a Chinese company to take over Cathay, given that the HK aviation scene is no longer just Cathay. GBA provides the Chinese alternative; while I am sure they will do well, I fail to see how Cathay's business will be destroyed by GBA. Times will be tougher, but hey, perhaps some competition is good for Cathay, especially even for us loyal Cathay flyers we understand that their ex-HKG prices often were ridiculous.
- It has been reported many times over the years that Swire has a special attachment to Cathay. This continues to remain the case. Swire has very deep financial and political pockets, and will do everything in their power to keep the airline. They can ride out this storm, and in my opinion 2020/2021 was probably the worst time for CX. 2022 should signal a better year financially. Swire, like the old Jardine holding structure, has very complex defensive mechanisms against a hostile takeover. Now yes, I am not naive enough to think that the CCP couldn't just strong arm them into selling, or shut them down a la Next Media, but I reckon they still have enough political sway to prevent that from happening for now.
TL;DR: GBA will end Cathay's monopoly-status in HK, but also get the bullseye off of Cathay's back (HK skies no longer just dominated by a British-family run brand). Competition will probably be good for consumers. And Swire will not just sell Cathay for economical reasons, it is deeply intertwined in the company's history and culture and is a source of great pride (and is their most visible brand).