For an EXP earning only based on flying it would be $68k-ish of qualifying spend, i.e., CK-level spend. So, not too many of those around. I think there will be bunches of folks who put mid-6-figure business spend on their AA-branded credit cards though. Wouldn't shock me if the number of EXPs doubles because of credit card spend (particularly business spend). Someone who might only fly enough to be gold or platinum under the previous regime (which is still a heck of a lot of flying compared to the average kettle) now has an easy incentive to shift $200k+ of spending onto their AA card (and more if they value the additional SWUs).

Personally I ended up over 200,000 EQMs this past cycle because of the extended earning period so I got all the extra rewards. But now under the new system I will definitely not make it past level 2 (i.e. the bare minimum needed to keep EXP).