Originally Posted by
ChurnieEls
Respectfully, I think this is different. With the ranges and exceptions they've mentioned, I think we're probably looking at a devaluation of 50%+ which is an incredible evisceration of value. The reason they can actually do this (insofar as I believe), is because they didn't secure any debt against the program (unlike say AA, or Hilton selling buckets of points to Amex), otherwise the legals would absolutely have a floor on the currency.
The balance between customer and shareholder is a delicate one, but I think they've probably gone too far in favor of shareholders/franchisees this time and I do expect it to show up in program engagement numbers. The program is effectively a customer list and I do genuinely believe that a gutting of value to this extent could even possibly show up in a goodwill impairment given the lack of clarity over 2023s valuations (which would impact shareholders).
I get what you're saying re we say this about xyz program every year, but I do ask, footprint aside, what's the compelling reason to participate in the Bonvoy program now? Hilton do far better promotions, Hyatt do far better elite benefits. I just don't see the gameplan for Marriott aside from trying to be some sort of hotel flavored Airbnb outfit.
See though, there is so much more here. A "50% devaluation" is a deceptive assessment, at-best.
Let's remember how much of a percentage of return these points truly are. For the sake of math, what would this truly cost you? 2-3% of your spend? No need to remind where inflation is at. Let's also remember, not all properties have increased that much. Some not at all. The beauty of the large chains is that there are so many options. Let's be honest, many times there are reasonably priced properties no matter what happens. If you only stay at properties that took the biggest hit, then I get it that stings. However, it would also sting to lose such a large portfolio of aspirational properties altogether. All while chasing the greener grass that another chain has all of these deals that will never change.
When you factor in benefits, including lifetime statuses, chasing said statues, credit card rewards, footprint, and so much more, the 2-3% "loss" seems to disproportionately outweigh the rest of the discussion. I'm a Hilton guy at the moment. I hear the same stuff all of the time. "I'm done with Hilton. I'm going to Marriott". While the Marriott people talk about the greener grass at Hilton. Wash, rinse, and repeat forever. Meanwhile, the price at many aspirational properties is through the roof altogether. The dollar inflation causes less emotional distress in this place than a point inflation does. We lose our minds about penny on the dollar points.
People are overly obsessed with free stuff. For many, it's rarely about what did I actually spend vs what I was looking for. It's more about "this was included, this was free, this was a deal". We've all sat through countless boats of family or friends, which have made no sense whatsoever. As I also know, you will never convince someone that their choice isn't as god-sent as they believe it was.