I'm on Iberia from LHR arriving at 10:05pm (22:05).
I'll be in business.
According to the above schedule, there is a transfer at 22:45.
With checked luggage and any Covid document checking plus what I assume will be a train ride in from T4S, what are my chances of making the 22:45 hotel shuttle?

It also looks like with a domestic flight to Granda the next morning at 12:00 I will have to take the 09:00.

I'm Titanium but are the better options for me on this trip?