Originally Posted by
Cymro
Not to take away from the excellent analysis, but isn't that a problem for just about every LGW long-haul route?
Where there is a high level of O&D, potentially price sensitive travellers who may nevertheless be willing to pay a premium for non-stop (i.e., relatively expensive I, T, and <N fares, but relatively few in higher fare buckets) and potentially long flights (South America, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, maybe eventually Thailand/Bali?) isn't every single LGW route ideal for a 787 or 350 and absolutely terrible for a 777? In fact, isn't a 777 pretty terrible for everywhere except the East Coast and Middle East?
Is BA looking at moving away from 777s in Gatwick any time soon?
It's a bit of a trade-off. A brand-spanking new 787 or 350 will undoubtedly be less thirsty than a 77E (say in the region of 15/20%) but on the other hand they either have a hefty price to pay as a lease or as asset to be depreciated. A Gatters 77E has no such qualms and, indeed, Alex Cruz made the point that, as per-seat cost, this was one of the factors that made it possible for BA to be at the same unit cost as Norwegian at LGW (when Norwegian was still around).
Anyway, going back to the chances of Lima of returning: my uneducated PoV is that demand simply isn't there, especially from a point-to-point market as it is from LGW. The Peruvian community in the UK is quite small; Wikipiedia (best I can find right now) says that there are less than 10,000 Peruvians in the UK vs more than quarter of a million in Spain or 100,000 in Italy. On the other side, I don't think there are large business links between the UK and Peru. That leaves tourism and, as
c-w-s says, since it's not the US then it's not that attractive to the majority of the British public.
If LHR wasn't slot-constrained, BA had the assets and less emphasis on ROIC/ensuring a route becomes profitable very quickly I'd love to see more flights to "exotic" destinations, maybe with 'tiny' planes like the 787s. But since neither of those conditions exist I doubt BA will be very adventurous in terms of routes. If it's not a slam dunk it's really hard for a route to be started up. Over the years we've seen the loss of many 'niche' routes: Caucasus, Beirut, Dar-es-Salaam, Entebbe, Monrovia/Freetown, Colombo...