FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - AS Flight Pass Subscription Service for CA, AZ, NV and UT
Old Feb 20, 2022 | 6:45 pm
  #114  
ashill
All eyes on you!
15 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: YYF/YLW
Programs: AA, DL, AS, VA, WS Silver
Posts: 6,234
Originally Posted by Visconti
Had no idea. Now I see why AS perhaps chose 6 for their initial plan. While I have no reason to dispute NYT's conclusions here, I'd have to imagine those, say, in the SF Bay Area must fly higher than the national average. Would it be that absurd to think the avg Bay Area person flies at least 3 RTs per year?
Yes, it would be absurd. (And the minimum subscription is 6 round trips per year, not 3.) In addition to the 12% statistic from that NY Times article, 53% of Americans never fly; in other words, the average American never flies. The Bay Area isn’t typical, but I see no reason to believe it’s so atypical as to move the average person from never flying to flying multiple times per year. And even if flights are $12 each way, most people don’t even think of flying — I bet (without looking it up) that most of the traffic from the Bay Area to Vegas (and moreso LA to Vegas) goes by car, not plane.

In 2019-2020, the average Bay Area resident spent $11,139 on transportation, $9300 of that on private vehicles, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (86.2% of transportation expenses, much lower than the 94% national average). Much of that remaining 13.8% was likely local public transport (which I would assume is the main reason Bay Area private vehicle expenses are a lower percentage than the national average). That doesn’t leave much for flying.

So important to remember that air travelers is always a small market in terms of fraction of the population. Of course, so is potential Audi buyers; it’s not like there isn’t money to be made. Where I do agree: there probably is a decent number of people for whom this subscription makes sense. But it’s almost certainly a narrow segment of a narrow segment of the total population of California.
ashill is offline