Originally Posted by
Visconti
While only speaking for myself, it appears to be a "no-lose" deal for me too.
However, this is one of those deals where one would have to be very discerning and do some legwork on the relative valuation of the price vs. value. For instance, the only route I know very well is SFO - LAS and it's here where, at least right now, I don't see how I could lose on a 6 flight deal over the span of the next 12 months--probably wouldn't even lose on a 12 flight package. Several years ago when oil prices were relatively low and B6 still in the market, you'd often see sale prices from SFO - LAS at around $19 - $25 fairly routinely. During the pandemic, with F9 taking over B6's prior disruptor role, flights were routinely around $15 and topping out at around $49.
So, now it seems leisure travel will supplant business travel over the next 6 - 12 months as the main driver to the LAS markets and with convention business predicted to recover next quarter as pandemic restrictions are relaxed in Vegas along with rising oil prices, it's, in my view, a pretty safe bet that the SFO - LAS pricing can only increase. With that onerous elite tax here to stay, at least in the foreseeable future, and the 24 seg requirement, this deal can range from good to great for some portion of the AS elites who fly frequently on these CA routes.
No idea what will happen after the initial 12 months, but with this route--SFO - LAS/LAX--I'd bet the prices go up, which I have by subscribing. Assuming there isn't a super-duper deadly variant triggering complete scrambling back into the confines of our crates again, I'll easily meet the 100K mileage thresholds with partners, but need some help with the 24 segments--this nicely and neatly takes care of all of the above.
Am I missing anything? From my analysis, those in or similar to my situation, it appears to be a no brainer for the next 12 months.
I think you’re spot on and you’re the customer I believe they want. I do a very small amount of inter CA flying and almost none to Nevada. So, for me, it’s better to roll the dice and hope it works out. The $49.00 pass? Almost like how I price some of my business services. I’ll give a small taste for a low price. But it’s designed to get you to buy up to the higher end product. AS stated on employee web site that the pricing makes them money. But if it isn’t too popular, they haven’t spent a large amount in product development. Congrats. I hope it works well for you. Looking forward to your reports.