Either way you wouldn't achieve immediate status if you didn't fly 4 segments last year or already this year. Best bet would be to apply expiring amount to 2022 (for 2023 status) and get status as soon as you finish your fourth segment. And let's say that trip is $500, then you would only need 500 of your 3/31/23 expiry points to get you up to Gold, which you would enjoy until Jan 2024.