Originally Posted by
lsquare
I'm glad you were able to travel to Europe and have fun, but honestly, it's hard to imagine doing any serious traveling when COVID is still rampant and with a lot of uncertainty around the world. Even though Marriott announced the elimination of the award chart weeks ago, I still haven't been in the mood to plan for any aspirational travel. I rather not have to call and cancel the reservation due to COVID. Barring any significant medical development, I see no reason 2022 will be different from 2021. COVID will likely wreak havoc in Q4 of 2022, especially if a new variant emerges. I feel like transferring points in 60k increments will buy me some time, and at least I can travel in a premium cabin going somewhere far once COVID Is under control.
If you’re not planning on travel before sometime in 2023, I think you are at significant risk of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic as far as avoiding devaluation is concerned. Airlines have used mileage issuing as a way to stay afloat during the pandemic. The devaluations are going to inevitably follow. For instance, AS in the 2017-2020 time frame lost EK, AF, KL and added back more expensive/less useful options like QR, IB, AY and AT. CX started to implode at the end of that as well. UA and DL did multiple devaluations, CX and AC lost some redemption options. So I think it is a fool’s errand to expect airline miles to be a store of value more than hotel points.
A million Marriott points is still going to have value (note that Hilton and IHG have not completely crushed their programs even after going to variable pricing).
That being said, if you do NOT have significant balances in any programs at all, I could see the logic for cashing out to create some for 2023-2024 travel, even knowing that you are taking some risk of devaluations. But if you’re already heavy in programs to the extent of having a couple of years of travel in 2023-2024 already covered, I don’t think adding to that pile is going to really help you preserve value from devaluations all that much.