AS’s legendary award chart isn’t so much any more. IB, QR, AT and AY awards on AS cost more than their counterpart awards on AA. EK is gone. CX F/J (which is most of what is left of value) is unobtainium as CX continues to implode as an airline. You still have stopovers which add value over AA/CX but I’ve found that BA bookings USA->EU get less YQ done through CX Asiamiles.

There are still spots of value and it’s not like DL, but I don’t think the program has really impressive value over AA as a potential transfer partner from Marriott, especially if you’re in a market where AS doesn’t serve your city (read: you need to buy positioning flights).

Back to OP’s point… I would likely do aspirational hotels in Europe if I was long Marriott and my miles balances were fat enough that dumping 400k+ miles would just leave me with fatter balances.You’re just choosing which program you want some future devaluation to hose you in. I was able to do trips to Europe this past fall and I’d expect 2022 spring/summer/fall to be similar. There should be value to be had in Marriott stays in upper tier properties.

That being said, if mileage balances are low, sure, 400k spread to some programs might be nice…