The earn is easier on Hilton (with Aspire being a very easy way to turbocharge earn; I think Diamond + Aspire > Gold or Platinum + Brilliant on earning), the burn ratio is better on Marriott but I am not sure it beats the easier earn by itself. I think Marriott has a bigger spread of luxury properties so I could see someone using that as the determining factor. How badly the 2022/2023 variable pricing changes Bonvoy the point redemption values seem to be the unknown here.