I'll just put in what has come up so far in work findings. It's going to be messy for a few more days and some of this is bound to confusing and even conflicting. The reason being is that though some stuff is relatively quick, particularly if it's in-vitro, mass population studies are in my view far more useful and we are months away from getting that. But so far my impressions are
- Variant Omicron is more easily transmitted than Delta - I think the data is confirmed on that one.
- It will probably have a fairly rapid increase in numbers, doubling every 4 to 7 days - more or less confirmed.
- It will probably supplant Delta within a month or so, Delta will likely become a niche case. My view but I'm not the only one with that view.
- The evidence on the impact / severity of Omicron isn't strong yet, but some findings (and a lot of hope) that it is perhaps less severe than Delta. Hope is not a strategy unfortunately.
- There is evidence that the antibody protection of vaccines is less effective on Omicron, however if you have had a recent jab - typically a booster - then about 16 days later your antibody levels are very high, so you are kind of back to a decent level of protection. This is informed conjecture, so should not be taken as factual.
- But we know that anitbody levels after Boosters are higher than after dose 2, which explains some of the commentary about this. This high level of protection lasts for weeks, low number of months at least, for Boosters we don't know enough about this yet.
- We know nothing about T cell protection levels, but in vitro this may be better than antibody protection, and may have the impact of reducing severity of infection as much, maybe more, than antibodies. Conjecture.
- Logically anti-viral medications should remain effective against Omicron, the GSK one in particular inhibits replication at a whole virus level. Monoclonals should also have benefits.
- The NHS has abandoned the idea of a carefully constructed trial stage on post PCR treatment, I think there will be a mass rollout of antivirals from next week or so, for anyone with at least one risk factor. That means anyone over 60 (?) with a positive PCR. I suspect it will be GP led but this could get messy..... For this to work, as a strategy, the medicine needs to be administered within 2 or 3 days of the PCR.
- BUT: Huge caveat: there are so few cases, and mostly in unvaccinated younger people - it is a massive unknown that the impact of Omicron is on the elderly and immuno suppressed. Once scenario, among many, is that it amounts to overall the same as Delta - less impactful but more cases, so back to the same place, pretty much.
- HENCE: it does make sense to try and curtail transmission at this point in time, and it would be good if people stay sensible and carry on taking care of themselves, including their mental health.