Originally Posted by
tr3k
We also don't hear about those testing positive being quarantined. But clearly they exist and more so daily.
Those forums have may be 100s of participants, or low 1000s. 100000 people presumably come to Thailand per month. So, those forums have less than 1% of the total visitors. At something like 0.1% positivity rate, forums would be expected to have may be 1 person in quarantine (and may be 3-5 if seatmates come into play). That 1 person is probably busy being locked up r/n.
I'm not a great fan of conjectural statistics - it takes just one unfortunate assumption to send the whole thing off kilter
But 'i get the point you are making. I'd just point out that of the thousands of members of any Thai-related forum, relatively few of them are likely to have been recent travellers into Thailand: so your calculation might well be over-egging the probability of reading reports of quarantine in those forums.