Originally Posted by
arlflyer
Interesting debates here. I think the main takeaway in my mind is that the state of the economy at any point in time isn’t homogeneous as oversimplified singular indicators would suggest it to be. Even since early in COVID times there was prediction of a “K-shaped” recovery, and while we are seeing increases in real earnings across all sectors (thus the bottom part of the “K” doing better than many had feared), it is nothing compared to what the winners in this whole deal have seen. The amount of pent up money is unreal and any sector of the economy that runs off of scarcity (luxury hotels, cars, watches, whatever) is going to be able to name its price for the foreseeable future.
Absolutely. For the middle class, wage growth was mild this year. For high paying industries (IB, t1 buy side, tech, etc), even entry level employees saw huge pay increases. The levels FYI data for even random companies is insane. There is now a path for 22 year olds to systematically make $500K a year for their first job out of college and 10x that by the time they’re 45. Nominally, 2021 will be the most financially lucrative year for many people. It seems like they are flocking to some cities (Miami, NYC, etc) and ignoring others (Chicago). That aligns with greater RE trends too.