It's interesting how variable the AA EXP e500 (sticker) upgrade experience can be across the flyertalk universe.

I am a multiyear EXP, around 20k annual spend. My domestic upgrade percentage is above 90%. And it has been that way for many years. However, I look at loads on expertflyer before I book -- and I usually book just before my upgrade window opens. I also avoid Sunday/ Monday and Thursday/ Friday travel (I make my own schedule). Mostly fly on Tuesdays and Saturdays. Based in PBI now, but used to be in the northeast. I'll fly out of FLL or MIA if the flights are better. PBI-ORD is sometimes difficult; PBI-DFW is moderately difficult. FLL is usually a breeze. Also important: the aircraft type. The new A321 with 20 F seats is of course a much better option than the A319 with 8 F seats.