Originally Posted by
GUWonder
Peak pricing will impact how much in total per quarter Hyatt will have to outlay to hotels for award nights consumed and what award night collectively will cost Hyatt on a per point redeemed basis.
As noted and cited in my post, this is not true by Hyatt’s own estimates. In terms of % of top line, it is forecasted to increase from peak 2019 levels in 2022. On a per redemption basis, the total outstanding amount of points does not impact how much Hyatt pays hotels.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
And distribution of award nights are not equal on each and every night of the year. Nor is occupancy, with occupancy being a major factor in what Hyatt has to outlay for award nights consumed by its program members.
This is explained in the section of their 10K I cited. Occupancy matters but I have yet to see your evidence tying the inflection points for occupancy to peak pricing. Furthermore, Hyatt is not incentivized to lower occupancy levels to decrease their WoH liability. They absolutely want their hotels to have higher occupancy levels than that of their competitors. Please take a look at the reporting I linked in my previous post.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
The "CC award promo" was applicable to what percentage of Hyatt program members? 5% of Hyatt's program members during that "CC award promo"? And the rebated points were funded by ____? The former is a figure that is with whichever Chase employees are managing the relationship for the Chase Hyatt card portfolio, but these kind of figures don't stay only there.
Again, kindly provide a source. Otherwise it’s just speculation against the objective fact that Hyatt has run promotions encouraging people to redeem points leading up to the introduction of peak pricing.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
Hyatt seems poised to be increasing "breakage" in customer accounts -- and changing expiry is not the only way that its done, although that is a part of it too.
So what does peak pricing have to do with breakage? Breakage is one of the biggest factors driving their model to calculate WoH deferred revenue liability (again, see Hyatt’s 10K) and expiration is cited as an example of breakage. No one is claiming that expiration is the only factor driving breakage (but it’s clearly a leading factor).
Finally, it is still completely unclear to me how this ties to promos. In my mind, promos are clearly designed to drive and direct occupancy if necessary. IMO it is debatable how effective they are with normal people but I think it’s a stretch to suggest there is a more sinister undertone to a company’s promo strategy with no evidence.