reference point: child renewal at USPS, expedited everything

9/25 applied for both kids to renew at the post office, expedited application and express return mail
9/27 applications arrived at destination (Philadelphia) according to USPS
10/16 as of today, both applications still say "not available" and that it may take up to 4 weeks to be listed as "in process". Check has not been cashed. It's only been 3 weeks, but this doesn't seem like a good sign...

How bad is this?? We have flight itinerary/price locked for another week, at which point we will have to decide whether to book for this trip that would start Nov. 18 (which would be just under 8 weeks from when we applied). Dates are not flexible. Do we have hope?

My adult application renewal was mailed (expedited) the same day from the same USPS facility, and showed up as in process on 9/29, with check cashed the same day. No movement since then.