Appreciate everyone's thoughts on the additional night vs early check in. Hit on a lot of the things I was debating internally. Ended up deciding to just keep the previous night. As badly as it pains me to use the points not very efficiently, I decided the time was worth more in this scenario.
Some considerations...Our flight looks to have arrived an average of 30 minutes early the past week (6:30 - 6:40 a.m.). It's early Sunday morning, so I'd guess we get into the city without a lot of traffic. And we had already lost a day in Paris to flight changes (plus another day to itinerary changes before I knew we'd have to push our flights back), so I didn't want to lose another day biding time and feeling unsettled waiting for our room to open up. Plus, the hotel being sold out the night before had me worrying our room would not be ready until around 3:00.