Thought I will post all my previous experiences as data points that might help others.
Not doing any MS now for the last 2 years due to Pandemic.
All these shutdowns were between 2 and 5 years ago.

Barclays Arrival card:
At shutdown only credited my balance of 100,000 points at half cent per point since I did not have any travel expenses to get 1 CPP.
Was doing WM check free bill pay and Simon mall in mall purchases.
I tried to apply for another card multiple times but got rejected all the times without even pulling credit saying something like 'previous adverse history'
So it looks like permanent ban since it has been over 5 years now.

Discover:
Had a long standing IT card. Then applied a miles card and gave only 6K credit limit. Used BP and Simon purchases and tired to recycle credit limit few times a month. Once made over payments and balance stayed negative that attracted shutdown of both cards after 11+ months. If I stayed for another month, would have got about $1500 cashback match for the 3% first year.

Chase:
Had 3-4 cards. All shutdown one day possibly due to BP. They gave 30 days to transfer all my ultimate reward points.
Applied for a BA card after 2-3 years. They approved it and I spent about $500 or so in 2 weeks and they cancelled within 2 weeks. So no sign up bonus. Had a BA card in the past but closed long time back.
Then after exactly 5 years, I applied for Air Lingus, got approved. Spent $5K required for 100K points within a week. Statement yet to close. Not sure if I survive or not. Will apply another one once I get these points since I am only at 2/24 right now.

Fidelity:
Simon and BP for several years. No credit recycle. Once overpaid and probably caused the shutdown. Had $500K plus in Fidelity 401K rolled over but that did not help me keep my card alive. Moved out my Fidelity elsewhere.


So definitely do not OVERPAY.
P2 is still active on all these banks.