This from an email I received from Alison Carpentier (Director, Loyalty Program Management):

"It looks like you’re well on track to qualify for 100K before the end of the year, but you didn’t get the “you’ve already qualified” email yesterday since you haven’t yet completed the required 24 segments flown on Alaska this year. Your 12 rollover segments from 2020 count toward the 140 total segments qualification, although that piece is irrelevant for you since you’ve already surpassed the 100K EQMs. The independent Alaska flown segment requirement is new for all tier levels as of the start of this year, and is based on in-year 2021 activity only."

This confirms that carry over mileage from 2020 does count toward the 100k level, but 2020 segments do not (unless you are qualifying via the 140 total segment route).

I have 18 segments flown and over 110k miles on AS in 2021. I will have at least 24 segments by early December. At that point I will qualify as MVP 100K.