I just reconciled my first six or so weeks of activity on the new card (15X) and seem to have confirmed that the formula back in post #4 is accurate within +/- 1 point when grouped. Some things I learned that may help others:

• My first three purchases were made at a Mexican restaurant (online payment), pizza place, and cafeteria kiosk (Google Pay on phone) before I received my physical card. None earned the bonus but did earn the base points. A later online payment at the Mexican place did get the bonus, as did several in-person purchases with the card at the pizza place. Have not re-tried the kiosk yet but it always awarded 4X on my gold card for restaurant spend.
• Pay at the pump at a gas station that appears on the small business map did not trigger the bonus. Might try again with an inside purchase.
• One restaurant did not get the bonus even though I paid in person.

It is a major pain to reconcile but I am mainly worried about confirming some places I am now shopping earn the points before I try to do any large spend.