This - pointless to guess what might/might not happen in 2022 at this point. It's going to depend on a lot of factors. Does the vaccination rate go up enough to fight off additional outbreaks later this year and next (both in the US and internationally). What do the (pretty much inevitable) next variants look like, when/how do these spread, how do the vaccines do against them, and how does the leisure and business travel community react? Do countries open up more, or close up more again?

I'm of the mind to not plan too far ahead. Personally, have a couple of fall trips booked/planned right now, but only because change fees are not a factor - I'm planning on taking those trips now (and hitting the fttf goals I have), but also fully prepared to cancel depending on the situation. That is only the fall. Haven't even considered 2022 yet. It will probably be at least Thanksgiving at least before I think about that.

I do think that if UA wants to keep their pre-pandemic premiers, the pre-pandemic PQP thresholds are going to have to drop again - for 2022, and probably 2023 at least, maybe even longer. Whether that comes in the form of actually dropping the starting thresholds, adding a starting bonus like this year, or regular promotions for those that are flying (will we see double PQP/PQF-type of promos come back like the old days?), I don't know. But I don't think the travel market in the near- and mid-term will support the fares that airlines used to be able to get, and that is going to mean they are going to make it easier to qualify one way or another.