FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - UAL Q3 results
Thread: UAL Q3 results
View Single Post
Old Oct 28, 2004 | 5:28 pm
  #7  
SEA_Tigger
FlyerTalk Evangelist
10 Countries Visited
20 Countries Visited
30 Countries Visited
20 Years on Site
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Seattle, WA, USA
Programs: Bar Alliance Gold
Posts: 16,280
Originally Posted by TonySCV
If high fuel costs are hurting UA, I can only imagine they are decimating low fare carriers like WN.
As channa and sftrvlr noted, WN had hedges in place for around 80% of their fuel out to 2006 or so at an average of $25-30 per barrel thanks to both proactive planning on the part of management and the available cash to place those hedges. Even so, WN's revenue fell $100 million for the year on the fuel they didn't hedge.

And other LCCs that have not hedged as deep or as well are reporing deepening losses due to the price of fuel.

When UA entered C11, they were unable to hedge fuel, so they're taking the full brunt of it in the shorts. While the loss figures are high, the fact that operations seems to be making a profit (before fuel prices) seems heartening to mee, as it means UA's cost cutting and revenue enhancing programs are working.

While EBITDAR is a concern, chances are quite good the Club Facility will take the horrendous spike in fuel costs into account. If UA was losing $300 million a quarter and close to failing EBITDAR with fuel at $25 a barrel instead of close to $60, I'd be a lot more worried. Obviously, I am still worried in general, but the predominance of the loss is not due to UA being incompetent, but outside forces beyond their direct control in one critical area relating to operations.

As for the other majors not in C11, most were not in a position to hedge much, if at all, and are taking it in the shorts about as bad as UA and US are.

Last edited by SEA_Tigger; Oct 28, 2004 at 5:30 pm
SEA_Tigger is offline