Yes, unless we were willing to go into a sharp lockdown now, case numbers will rise, and hospitalisations will rise too. When 97% of those over 50 are showing antibodies to Covid (via vaccination or infection) declaring another lockdown just isn't going to happen. So we are down to managing an increased level of hospitalisation. The RVI is the largest hospital of its sort in the North East and currently has just 18 admitted patients (staying overnight). 12 are not showing on NIMS as having any vaccine, 6 have had one vaccine, 2 of them in the days before admission, just 1 has had both vaccines and the second vaccine was only recently given. The other person we haven't found out their real name yet. One patient is in intenisve care, mid 20s with no obvious underlying health conditions, unvaccinated. These are a fraction of the numbers we had in January, when we admitted patients taken by ambulance up the A1 from north London due London's hospitals being overwhelmed. We aren't using "bank" staff (zero hours staff who can be called in as and when) and normal holiday patterns are going ahead. And this hospital is about 10 minutes walk from one the worst infection spikes in Europe. with 7 day case rate in excess of 1,500.

When it comes to models, it's important to realise they are not forecasts as such. They are in place to assist with scenario planning. The NHS and HMG doesn't really need forecasts per se, but it does need to be able to respond if X, Y and Z happens plus a train falls off the King Edward VII Bridge all at once. Hence a number of assumptions are made, and outcomes then indicate what may happen to start a debate about what to do. So they are very valuable and help capacity and resouce planning, but they are not quite the same as forecasts.