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Old Jul 5, 2021, 5:27 pm
  #7  
sfozrhfco
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
Until borders on both sides are fully opened without quarantine, there is really no need to offer bargain basement fares—especially if flights have to be temporarily cut if one side or the other further restricts travel once the cooler weather returns.

In addition, VS\BA with another lost year are both going to be more desperate for cash. VS had enough to last through 2021–assuming summer flights returned to a more normal level—which seems unlikely at this point. They won’t be flying around a lot of extra capacity if that will put them in an even more precarious financial position. BA will be losing a ton of money if they keep canceling flights every week as they have thus far.

With summer flights still being cut by competitors and transatlantic business travel unlikely to be up to 2019 levels for another year at least, competitive capacity will remain muted. We will have to wait until 2022 to see which carriers are still standing and in what shape each will be in by the winter 2022 before we see how pricing will shake out.
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