Just thought I'd mention that this year on the SEA- NRT UA route on the Saturday (or maybe it was Sunday) before the CNY in January 2004, UA was offering voluntary denied boarding compensation. Not sure of how many volunteers they ended up bumping off the flight, but some people were definitely bumped, got $800 in vouchers, and flew out the next day. I think that is a busy time for flights that have connections to the mainland and Hong Kong.