The tricky thing is that places which have had low prevalence are more vulnerable.

So for instance, Washington state is going through a little smaller 4th wave now, which the governor there said would be worse if they didn't have over half the state with at least one dose and over 30% of the state fully vaccinated.

Ontario/Toronto also seems to have a surge and again, Canada has low rates for most of the past year. They're off to a much slower vaccine rollout.

So Australia and NZ could be especially vulerable without say 60% vaccinated with one dose and maybe 30-40% fully vaccinated at least.