If the priority is to stop the health service being overwhelmed, then cases is less important than daily admissions and total people in hospital. You can view these figures here

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

It is clear numbers appear to be starting to fall but we are still at around 38k in hospital which is nearly double the peak last year in mid April of about 21k. This is going to take a few weeks just to fall below the 2020 peak, never mind to a level which is more like those seen last summer.

There are signs of going in the right direction on cases/admissions/deaths, but I am afraid any let up on restrictions before end of February at the earliest looks extremely remote.