Originally Posted by
bocastephen
Let's just say I am looking at UAL June 2021 22 Strike puts - I think we're in for a decline of at least that as the vaccination schedule continues to fall apart, countries return to travel exclusion mode, and lockdowns begin spreading. I think the airline industry is in for a very rough ride in 2021 and any optimism is very misguided. Looking at the recent earnings call notes, I think UAL is in a complete state of denial and has no idea how to handle a multi-year collapse in global air travel. Some of those management comments are so beyond laughable, they border on negligence.
We must have read or listened to a different earnings call. I've pointed out in several threads that UA doesn't expect 2023 to reach 2019 levels, but things should be improved - and I've gotten responses of people thinking record demand coming as early as March/April (nope) - I've pointed out extended lockdowns - and that was seemingly dismissed in its entirety - most companies have publicly stated business travel is off the table until July - but that will certainly be extended until the end of the year - and this is an even if, even if the US gets to 10,000 cases a day by September, I don't see the world finding that acceptable to welcome US fliers when some countries are at zero or near zero - I don't see Disneyland packed and pent up demand for travel doesn't matter with restrictions or things closed. Hawaii is running less than 20% occupancy (and not all hotels open) and while you need a test to get in, it is largely unrestricted. No pent up to demand to a largely empty Hawaii.
Regardless, UA has been very transparent in my opinion of a bleak 2021 and 2022 with no meaningful recovery until 2023.