I think your assessment would be the same as many travelers but only you can decide the weight of the various factors and your unique situation.
For example, if I needed to get some work done, I might be inclined to take the connecting option. Likewise, if I was 6' 6", I might opt for first class over coach despite the later arrival.
The front cabin domestic product these days, for all intents and purposes, is a bigger seat with drink service.