Originally Posted by
Flying for Fun
While I follow your reasoning, you prior calculations are too simplistic to draw anything of meaning from.
On my FLL-SEA flight on November 10th, there were 31 Elites on the upgrade list & 7 on the standby list. Walk-up fares in Main were $159. Had there not been seat-blocking, there would have been 5 additional upgrades in addition to the 3 that were. It appears only 4 were revenue passengers. Without seat-blocking, AS most likely would have generated more revenue if U space was available and some passengers upfared to K class to apply a GGU. Additionally, 75Ks wanting a seat up front would likely pay for an H or higher fare & MVPGs an M fare or higher for the immediate upgrade into F without GGU availability. Not all flights are at capped capacity either so unblocking middle seats doesn't necessarily mean a 50% increase in passengers in the Main Cabin.
Into March, my upgrade rate was 100%, in September & October, my upgrade rate as a solo traveler was 75% & since then 50% with a companion. Without seat-blocking, I would have been 100% across the board.
The reality is, just as Scott Kirby said, you can't be socially distant on an airplane. While seat-blocking gives you a little more distance side-to-side, you are closer to the people behind & in front of you in Main and slightly further apart in Premium. In the Main cabin, the centre of A to the centre of C is approximately 34". In First, the centre of A to the centre of C is approximately 26" with opportunity to move one way or the other and/or lean away from the other passenger, so effectively the same as a blocked middle in Main.
A mask is required when you can't maintain 6' of separation. If you are seated beside a "spreader" who is wearing a mask, does it matter if you are 18", 26" or 34" apart? I haven't seen any data to suggest more virus is contracted on flights operated by AA or UA as opposed to AS, DL or WN. AS can't indefinitely subsidize your fares for a blocked middle seat. You always have the option of purchasing that middle seat for yourself. That way, AS will still be there for us when this pandemic is behind us.
James
I'm not sure any meaningful conclusions can be drawn from your hypotheses either. It's a simple fact of math: the more passengers, the more competition for upgrades. COVID has had a tremendous impact on both leisure and business travel, so hard to say on any given route how many elites will be represented; it's also hard to say how sales will go on a given route. If there is little demand and they are only selling half or 2/3 of the Y seats to begin with, then sure, there may be more upgrades once seat blocking ends. OTOH, there might also be discounted F seats for sale, and the general public may decide they're paying for F since AS isn't going to be blocking middle seats in Y.
Good luck to you in your quest for upgrades.