Originally Posted by
funkydrummer
I don't think such a policy paper belongs ITT. But seeing moderators posted right after you, I've got to assume moderation is okay with this. Consequently, it is only fair one should be able to present a counter-argument.
A
recent paper in Nature entitled "Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening" uses cell phone data on 98 million Americans to study how human mobility affects the virus spread. They conclude that superspreader events drive the spread which occur predominantly at hotels, restaurants, cafes, gyms, and houses of worship.
When people travel, they visit hotels, restaurants, cafes, and perhaps even gyms disproportionally much. And what do quarantines do? They prevent many people from traveling in the first place! The quoted Oxera study is hugely flawed from a methodological perspective because it merely focuses on those that do travel. How can the study ignore the channel of people deciding not to travel due to quarantine regulation which reduces mobility and hence the spread of the virus?
The purpose of the paper - which I will admit, is a partisan one - is to show that a 14-day self-isolation like the UK one does not work. It's not respected (and PHE too admits that), it's not enforced, it's not adhered to. I mean, I'm self-isolating right now (three days to go, yay!) after a brief visit to Europe where I by the way got a test on arrival (negative). No one has checked my PLF, no one has contacted me and the
members of my household don't have to self-isolate! How senseless is that?
And indeed despite self-isolation the UK has more than a million cases and 50,000 deaths. Germany, which had a more intelligent approach, doesn't. To me it comes to show that in handling this pandemic it pays to use science, intelligence and organisation instead of blunt tools and conflicting messages.
I don't want to drag this into OMNI territory, and I'm not a Covid denier. I simply am not. But it is high time that we all start figuring out ways to unfreeze society. By my reckoning, between 40 and 60,000 jobs have been lost in the UK air transport & aerospace industries; airport cities like Crawley have, according to the BBC, 40% of their population on furlough. There are ways beyond the self-isolation to give this industry some breathing space and, at the same time,
enhance public safety. Because it's bloody well clear that the self isolation isn't working. And the same applies to a lot of other sectors (for instance, I'm told that my local NHS trust is no longer doing breast cancer prevention screenings due to Covid, which is dangerous), but I'm going off on a tangent here.